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March 23, 2011

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DuenaBlomstrom

Interesting point.

Some could wonder about that stance considering just the other day we were proclaiming the imminent demise of money. What's the time frame for this prediction on the lack of necessary worry? 5 years term? 10? Ever?

Len

See here: http://abstrusegoose.com/348 (and hover over the comic).

Len

Why don't you pick up the correct gravatar?

Ovoinnovation

I find this argument interesting, and the most enlightening comment of all is the quote "who’s better to move the money than the banks". There's a narrow world view ripe for disruption if I've ever heard one. What if it isn't "money" we want to "move" around? What if our concept of money, or value, changes?

What if the idea of information about money becomes as important as the money itself (a la Mint)?

Banks will be disaggregated - in fact they are being disaggregated now, just in channels and in ways they discount.

Serge Milman

I wonder if the music labels (Warner, EMI, Sony) did not believe the same until iTunes disintermediated them? Banks selling stocks and bonds before investment firms disintermediated them? Retailers before Amazon came on the scene? Hospitality providers until Travelocity / Experida / etc. came along?

Disintermediation does not require removing Banks from the supply chain, but rather removing Banks from the high value-added activities within the supply chain.

Banks have plenty to be worried about. Disintermediation is a threat, but I agree not the biggest threat to Banks in the next 2-3 years.

Fritz Thomas Klein

Let us keep two things separate:
Holding funds (or what ever you want to call it) and moving them.
Holding funds, as experience has so sadly shown, must be strictly regulated to avoid losses to the pubic. Any company holding 'funds' for others must be subject to the same regulation. This is the traditional side of banking, but new competitors will come up and must be subject to the this same regulation.
Moving funds is separate, although it is also connected to holding bfunds - often, you only hold funds because you want to move them. But moving funds can be subject to totally different rules and the field of competitors may be far wider.
The difficult thing will be to move funds without holding them for any time. Because if they are held for any time, regulation on holding them must kick in. So far, when moving funds has been really separated from holding them, as rightly said, this has only lead to another level ontop, as Paypal has shown.

Chris Skinner

Thanks for the comments guys, and the last one is particularly noteworthy as i guess that's HBSC's point: any institution that has money held on behalf of customers is not going to be disintermediated as demonstrated by the financial crisis, e.g. if you're covered by guarantees of trust to keep funds safe, then you must be regulated and have a licence. To get into that space is not the space the disintermediators can move ...

... until they're big enough to buy a bank or become one (see PayPal).

Colin Henderson

Some good points here. I agree the key lies in the holding money vs moving money. Payments in the broadest use of the word will be more and more valuable especially as they are more and more tied to mobile apps including phone as a debit/credit card.

The 'holding money' aspect is different. Even the Paypals don't do that. Their money sits with Wells Fargo. But as a commenter noted what if a money mover decides to register or purchase a money holder based on a radical new model yet to be determined.

In any event, banks cannot be disintermediated per se unless government changes the rules managed by the FSA, FDIC etc. A more likely secenario over time, is the fragmentation of bank services that chips away the banks' revenue model.

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